My Unscientific Oscar Predictions

Just for you– I’ve got the rundown of the big competitions for the Oscars. Not been paying attention? Hey, I’m not judging—there are many reasons why you might not be aware of what’s up with Oscar. You might still be walking on sunshine from the inauguration, you might have no electricity because you live in that large chunk of the United States that got hit by an ice storm, or you might have been waiting for me to break the award categories down for you.

Of course, I plan to offer my opinions. My first opinion: Hugh Jackman? As host? Seriously? I heard he had a blast at the Tonys, but that doesn’t mean it’s okay for him to do the Oscars. I will go in with an open mind, though, and try to give him a fair shot, even if I would much rather see Jon Stewart.

yes, we're both taken, but fantasies never hurt anyone

Because this is my column, I’ll go in the order of my choosing, starting with the three noms for Best Animated Feature Film: BOLT, KUNG FU PANDA and WALL-E. Clearly, it’s WALL-E that should and will win. Some friends of mine were offended that it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture and was delegated to the “kiddie table.” I see it differently: Yes, WALL-E is clearly good enough to be nominated for Best Picture, but why not nominate it for something it can win? And Best Animated Feature is no slap in the face. We wouldn’t say a doc nominated for Best Documentary instead of Best Picture had diminished honor, right?

Which leads quite conveniently to my discussion of Best Picture: MILK, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, THE READER, FROST/NIXON and SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. What I think will win: MILK. The film that should win: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. I know, I know, I’ve heard the criticisms. It’s unrealistic (the triumph of love winning out, the fact that kids raised on garbage heaps in any country wouldn’t ever know who’s on the U.S.

hundred dollar bill, it’s typical Bollywood, blah blah blah), but guess what I say in response: It’s a movie. It’s supposed to be what movies are. It’s a film that draws the viewer in with its compelling story that’s well-crafted with perfect editing and scenery. It’s also got great acting and terrific music by M.I.A.

The nominations for Best Actor are Richard Jenkins for THE VISITOR, Sean Penn for MILK, Brad Pitt for THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Frank Langella for FROST/NIXON, and Mickey Rourke for THE WRESTLER. Who will win: Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, or Mickey Rourke. Who should win: Richard Jenkins. In a perfect world, actors and directors would be judged solely on the strength of the work in question, but that doesn’t always happen with the Oscars. Brad Pitt hasn’t yet won an Oscar, and for some reason I cannot fathom, the country is in love with him and Angelina Jolie these days. If Pitt wins, I suspect that would be why. And the U.S. loves a comeback story and is probably happy that Mickey Rourke hasn’t already died in a pile of his own sick, so that would explain that. But if the voters vote on the strength of the performance in question instead of for the romance surrounding the actor’s personal narrative, Richard Jenkins should win. His performance in THE VISITOR was perfect. As a movie, THE VISITOR was almost perfect, and frankly, I’m a little pissed that it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.

Supporting Actor noms are Heath Ledger in THE DARK KNIGHT; Josh Brolin in MILK; Robert Downey, Jr. in TROPIC THUNDER; Philip Seymour Hoffman in DOUBT; and Michael Shannon in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. Who should and will win: Heath Ledger. And not because Ledger died tragically last year. While Downey doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell, kudos to the Academy for

Screw Rachel. She bugged me.

their uncharacteristic recognition of an actor’s terrific work in a silly comedy.

Best Actress nominees are Anne Hathaway for RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Meryl Streep for DOUBT, Melissa Leo for FROZEN RIVER, Angelina Jolie for CHANGLING, and Kate Winslet for THE READER. Who will win: Meryl Streep, Angelina Jolie, or Melissa Leo. Who should win: Anne Hathaway or Melissa Leo. There are many reasons why Jolie shouldn’t win, if only because of the annoying inconsistency of her accent in CHANGLING. Hathaway deserves it; she shouldn’t be punished for appearing in a sub-par film … or GET SMART. And she just might win; the Academy doesn’t always hold the movie against the actor: After all, Hillary Swank won Best Actress for BOYS DON’T CRY in 1999.

In the Supporting Actress category, we have Amy Adams for DOUBT, Penélope Cruz in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Viola Davis in DOUBT, Taraji P.Henson in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, and Marisa Tomei in THE WRESTLER. Who will win: No idea. Who should win: Penélope Cruz or Amy Adams. Like Hathaway, Cruz shouldn’t be punished for the sub-par film she appeared in (or for the huge career mistake of appearing in THE SPIRIT). If it’s true that Natalie Portman turned down Adams’ role in DOUBT, I’ll bet she’s kicking herself.

Finally, my thoughts on Directing: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, THE READER, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, MILK and FROST/NIXON. Danny Boyle deserves to win, for all of the reasons I named in my discussion of Best Picture. Yes, Ron Howard is good, fine. But Gus Van Sant shouldn’t be rewarded simply for not ruining a film about a great man, and Stephen Daldry certainly shouldn’t be rewarded for ruining a film that had so much potential to be fantastic, but just wasn’t.

Why I Love LA (repost of Jan 4 column at Matchflick.com )

Apple Pan yumminess & good company.

Happy new year!

I was lucky enough to get to California during my break. Not that I don’t adore Milwaukee, but, well, you know. I spent time in Sacramento, Davis, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. I had delicious food and fun with friends in Davis and Sacramento, and a jolly time in San Francisco. Yes, the MLA convention and Margaret Atwood Society business meeting were indeed a blast, but the highlight in San Francisco was probably the Patton Oswalt show at the Cobb Comedy Club. He was hilarious, of course, and we were treated to a guest we weren’t expecting: Dana Gould! (You might remember him from writing for The Ben Stiller Show and The Simpsons). My BFF Dr. Karma and I had a chance to chat with both of them after the show. Dana Gould was very friendly and gave us some insider anecdotes about the origins of some of our favorite Simpsons episodes. (The PLANET OF THE APES musical: Dana Gould’s. Yes, he’s that cool).

On the 30th, I left the San Francisco Hilton and took the BART to SFO, where a Southwest flight brought me to LAX. My first time! Justin and Mr. Fabulous picked me up and took me to a dog park in Culver City and then to their place. For dinner, we went to Apple Pan, a pie and hamburger favorite in LA. Justin’s friend Jorge took over my camera and took some adorable group shots. After dinner, we had drinks and pool

Justin & Du in Hollywood Hills

and The Joker, a bar that feels like a Milwaukee corner tap (although notably lacking in smokey haze).

New Year’s Eve was a terrific day! Justin and I started with a yummy breakfast at Nick’s. I hadn’t intended to get much exercise whilst in California but I met up with a friend from elementary school (gotta love Facebook!) who took Justin and me on quite the walk. Kevin works in post-production in Santa Monica, so we got to see a real-life post production facility. The employees were buzzing because rumor has it they’ll be handling dailies for Lost this month. After we saw Kevin’s workplace, we walked to the Third St. Promenade (where I was tempted to pop into the Gap to buy a sweater; I was quite chilly). We then checked out the Santa Monica Pier and then walked to Venice Beach. I was nervous as I’ve seen AMERICAN HISTORY X, but luckily I was not recruited to a local hate group. Justin and Kevin wouldn’t have let that happen to me anyway, I am sure.

On New Year’s Day, Justin and Kathy took me on the ultimate tourist drive around Hollywood. We went up into the Hollywood Hills and got quite close to the sign (not a great drive for the easily motion sick), and then down to the Walk of Fame and Mann’s Chinese Theater. I compared my hand size to Marilyn’s, and briefly wondered where Ali McGraw is today. I bought a cherry diet Coke at

My pinkies are shorter than Marilyn’s.

the soda fountain in the Disney store and snuck a pic of Gene Simmons reading the paper. We checked out the Roosevelt. I’m not going to go so far as to say that I, too, think it’s haunted, but there is definitely some energy in that place. And candles. We took a little drive around Beverly Hills, where I saw the Beverly Hills Hotel and asked Justin and Kathy if they’d ever seen THE SLUMS OF BEVERLY HILLS. They hadn’t, but Justin said that Natasha Lyonne is in some bad shit, like drugs. I sure hope that’s not true; I like her so much. For dinner, we went to Roscoe’s Chicken and Waffles, which is just as incredible as you think it is. I am still thinking about the mac and cheese and the real lemonade. We were home early and watched THE VISITOR, one of the best films from 2008. The story was the perfect balance of moving and subtle, and the acting was freaking amazing. Richard Jenkins is more versatile than Meryl Streep.

On Friday, after a kick-ass breakfast (pancakes the size of frisbees!) at the Griddle on Sunset, we drove to Watts to check out Watts Towers. (Yes, I have wonderful friends who were willing to drive their Stratus with Illinois plates through Inglewood for me. They rock). There is some restoration going on so we couldn’t get in the gates, but Watts is definitely a cool thing to check out, you know, during the day.

I think he was counting the typos in LA Weekly

(Thank you for the tip, Globetrekker).

Justin and Kathy are continuing the tradition of Food Night here in LA, and tonight I cooked. My friend from all the way back to the second grade and his wife Laura came, and my friend from grad school Paul and his wife Olivia were here, and Justin’s friends Karen and Shawn from college as well. And I hope they keep hanging out long after I’m gone.

So a few things I’ve learned about LA: parts of it look and smell like Mexico. While everything is crazy expensive compared to my down-to-earth, Midwestern sensibilities, it’s not as spendy as San Francisco, where you’re charged a 5% tax on imaginary purchases. Also, I thought I’d see celebrities constantly on the streets and in restaurants. I imagined literally tripping over celebrities, but the only one I saw was a friend of Justin and Kathy’s who was invited over, so that doesn’t probably count as a bona fide celebrity sighting. Word is they’re all out of town right now anyway, so maybe next time I visit I’ll see Kiefer Sutherland get into a shitfaced scuffle. Dare to dream. Another thing: not everyone is plastic, self-centered, and rude. I’ve met some really great people here (granted, most of them aren’t from here, but that’s neither here nor there).